Gartner afirma que o uso da impressão 3D irá provocar um grande debate sobre ética e regulação
O rápido desenvolvimento das bioimpressoras 3D provocará apelos para banir a tecnologia do uso humano e não humano, em 2016
A escalada das capacidades de impressão 3D vai mudar os modelos de varejo e ameaçar a propriedade intelectual
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De acordo com o Gartner, líder mundial em pesquisa e aconselhamento sobre tecnologia,
a tecnologia de bioimpressão 3D (a aplicação médica da impressão 3D
para produzir tecidos vivos e órgãos) está avançando tão rapidamente que
provocará um grande debate sobre seu uso até 2016. Ao mesmo tempo, a
impressão 3D de dispositivos médicos, como próteses, combinada a uma
população crescente e níveis insuficientes de assistência de saúde em
mercados emergentes, deve causar uma explosão da demanda pela tecnologia
em 2015.
Gartner Says Uses of 3D Printing Will Ignite Major Debate on Ethics and Regulation
Rapid Development of 3D Bioprinters Will Spark Calls to Ban the Technology for Human and Nonhuman Use by 2016
Escalation of 3D Printing Capabilities Will Change Retail Models and Threaten Intellectual Property
The
technology of 3D "bioprinting" (the medical application of 3D printing
to produce living tissue and organs) is advancing so quickly that it
will spark a major ethical debate on its use by 2016, according to
Gartner Inc. At the same time, 3D printing of non-living medical devices
such as prosthetic limbs, combined with a burgeoning population and
insufficient levels of healthcare in emerging markets, is likely to
cause an explosion in demand for the technology by 2015.
"3D
bioprinting facilities with the ability to print human organs and tissue
will advance far faster than general understanding and acceptance of
the ramifications of this technology," said Pete Basiliere, research
director at Gartner. Already in August 2013, the Hangzhou Dianzi
University in China announced it had invented the biomaterial 3D printer
Regenovo, which printed a small working kidney that lasted four months.
Earlier in 2013, a two-year-old child in the US received a windpipe
built with her own stem cells.
Mr. Basiliere
added: "These initiatives are well-intentioned, but raise a number of
questions that remain unanswered. What happens when complex 'enhanced'
organs involving nonhuman cells are made? Who will control the ability
to produce them? Who will ensure the quality of the resulting organs?"
Nevertheless,
the day when 3D-bioprinted human organs are readily available is
drawing closer, and will result in a complex debate involving a great
many political, moral and financial interests.
As 3D
printing technology continues to mature, its ability to build customized
human anatomical parts has pervasive appeal in medical device markets —
especially in economically weak and war-torn regions — where it
addresses high demand for prosthetic and other medical devices. In
addition, increasing familiarity within the material sciences and
computer-augmented design services sectors, and integration with
healthcare and hospitals, will further increase demand from 2015
onwards.
"The overall
success rates of 3D printing use cases in emerging regions will escalate
for three main reasons: the increasing ease of access and
commoditization of the technology; ROI; and because it simplifies
supply chain issues with getting medical devices to these regions," said
Mr. Basiliere. "Other primary drivers are a large population base with
inadequate access to healthcare, in regions often marred by internal
conflicts, wars or terrorism."
Outside the
medical market, 3D printing will also bring about major changes and
challenges. Gartner predicts that by 2018, at least seven of the world's
top 10 multichannel retailers will be using 3D printing technology to
generate custom stock orders, at the same time as entirely new business
models are built on the technology.
"Some
retailers are already selling 3D printers to consumers, and as they
become more readily available, consumers could use them to 'manufacture'
their own custom-designed products," said Miriam Burt, research vice
president at Gartner. "We also expect to see 3D copying services and 3D
printing bureaus emerge where customers bring 3D models to a retailer or
provider and have increasingly high-end parts and designs printed, not
just in plastics but in materials including ceramics, stainless steel,
and cobalt and titanium alloys."
The rapid
emergence of this technology will also create major challenges in
relation to intellectual property (IP) theft. Gartner predicts that by
2018, 3D printing will result in the loss of at least $100 billion per
year in IP globally.
"The very
factors that foster innovation — crowdsourcing, R&D pooling and
funding of start-ups — coupled with shorter product life cycles, provide
a fertile ground for intellectual property theft using 3D printers,"
said Mr. Basiliere. "Already, it's possible to 3D print many items,
including toys, machine and automotive parts, and even weapons."
In this
environment, businesses will find it increasingly difficult to fully
monetize their inventions, and licensees of related IP will be less able
to achieve the maximum benefit of their licenses. IP thieves will have
reduced product development and supply chain costs, enabling them to
sell counterfeit goods at a discount, while unsuspecting customers are
at risk of poorly performing and possibly even dangerous products.
More detailed
analysis is available in the report "Predicts 2014: 3D Printing at the
Inflection Point." The report is available on Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/doc/2631234.
Gartner's
Special Report "Predicts 2014" features 67 documents with insights and
recommended actions to help IT leaders start exploring the "Digital
Industrial Revolution." It can be viewed at http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/predicts/ and includes links to reports and video commentaries that examine the impact of big data on enterprises.
Gartner
analysts will provide additional analysis on these predictions during
the Gartner webinar, "Gartner Predicts a Disruptive IT Future" on March
13 at 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. EST. To register for this complimentary
webinar, please visit http://my.gartner.com/webinardetail/resId=2656516?srcId=1-2994690285.
Sobre o Gartner
O Gartner
é líder mundial no fornecimento de pesquisas e aconselhamento na área
de tecnologia da informação. Fornece análises de TI necessárias para
seus clientes fazerem as escolhas certas todos os dias. De CIOs e
diretores de TI em corporações e agências governamentais a líderes em
empresas de alta tecnologia e telecomunicações, passando por
investidores deste mercado, o Gartner é parceiro indispensável para 60
mil clientes em mais de 13.000 companhias diferentes. Fundado em 1979, o
Gartner tem sede em Stamford, Connecticut, e possui 5.800 associados,
sendo 950 analistas de pesquisa em 85 países. No Brasil, o Gartner está
presente com três unidades: Gartner Research, que oferece pesquisas e
aconselhamento para profissionais, fornecedores e investidores de TI;
Executive Programs, grupo de CIOs alimentado pelo conteúdo Gartner com
mais de 3 mil membros em todo o mundo; e Eventos, com conferências e
simpósio anuais. Para obter mais informações, visite www.gartner.com.
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